Federal elections
The 2004–2025 general elections, riding by riding — who won, by how much, and where each party’s vote lives. Then the question the map begs: with the same ballots, what would the House have looked like under proportional representation?
How to read this 🍁
Three sets of boundaries
Ridings are redrawn after each census. The 2004–2011 elections ran on the 2003 Representation Order (308 seats), 2015–2021 on the 2013 order (338) and 2025 on the 2023 order (343). The map switches boundary files with the election; the Flips view is only offered when the previous election used the same boundaries, because a redrawn riding has no “previous winner”.
The PR re-counts are mechanical
Each scenario re-allocates the votes actually cast. Real PR would change behaviour: fewer strategic votes, different candidates and campaigns, new parties, and turnout shifts. Treat the rows as “how far the House sat from the vote”, not a forecast of a PR election.
What each system does
Provincial list PR keeps every province’s seat count (the constitutional floor) and splits it by that province’s vote. National list PR treats the country as one district. MMP follows the Law Commission of Canada’s 2004 proposal: about two-thirds of seats are ridings, the rest are provincial list seats that top a party up to its share — a party that wins more ridings than its share keeps them (“overhang”). Independents and micro-parties can’t take list seats.
Formula & threshold
Sainte-Laguë (divisors 1, 3, 5…) is neutral between large and small parties; D’Hondt (1, 2, 3…) nudges seats toward the largest. A threshold shuts out parties under that share of the vote in the district being allocated (the province, or the country for national PR). Most PR countries use 2–5%.
Disproportionality
The Gallagher index sums the squared gaps between each party’s vote share and seat share (√(½Σ(v−s)²)). Zero is perfect; established PR systems land around 1–4, Canada’s FPTP elections around 10–20. The 2025 election, with two parties at 85% of the vote, is the most “proportional” recent result — by accident of a two-party race, not by design.
Sources
Results: Elections Canada official voting results, tables 11 and 12, for the 38th–45th general elections; turnout history from Elections Canada’s turnout table. Boundaries: Statistics Canada federal electoral district cartographic files (2003 and 2013 orders) and the Elections Canada 2023 Representation Order file. Party labels are normalised across years (e.g. “N.D.P.” → NDP); minor parties are grouped as “Other” but listed by name in the riding readout.